Working papers under revision or initial review
Bank business models at zero interest rates, joint with Andre Lucas and Julia Schaumburg.
R&R, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
(Most recent version: May 2017)
(TI DP version)
An observation-driven dynamic finite mixture model for the study of banking data.
Our business model classification results are available here
Different types of banks respond differently to falling long-term nominal interest rates.
Bank and sovereign credit risk:
Spillover effects from the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment, joint with Johannes Breckenfelder.
R&R, Journal of Empirical Finance.
(Most recent version: March 2017)
A study of risk spillover from the banking to the sovereign sector within and across borders in the euro area.
Market participants understand that euro area countries (taxpayers) share the burden of rescuing foreign banks in distress.
Do negative interest rates make banks less safe?, joint with Federico Nucera, Andre Lucas, and Julia Schaumburg.
R&R, Economics Letters
(a recent version: Apr 2017)
The financial stability impact of negative central bank policy rates depends on banks' business models.
Policy rate cuts below zero trigger different risk responses than a cut to zero.
Work in progress
Score-driven tail shape, with application to bond yields and purchases at a high frequency, joint with Xin Zhang.
(a previous version)
A score-driven framework to model the time variation in the tail shape parameter of a Generalized Pareto Distribution.
ECB bond purchases between 2010-2012 had an impact on higher-order moments of bond yield changes as well.
An Arbitrage-Free Nelson Siegel model with stochastic volatility and interactions:
the impact of central bank asset purchases, joint with Geert Mesters and Siem Jan Koopman.
(older TI DP version)
An extended AFNS model to assess the impact of central bank policies on volatile yield curves.
Frank Diebold's blog entry on MSK (2015) is here.
Risk spillovers across ECB unconventional monetary policies, joint with Diego Caballero, Andre Lucas, and Xin Zhang.
* FMA Latin-American conference, Mexico City, 16-17 Feb 2017
* Vienna-Copanhagen conference on Financial Econometrics, Vienna, 09-11 Mar 2017
* Time series econometrics and applications workshop, Barcelona, 6-7 Jun 2017
* High-dimensional time series econometrics, IAS Vienna, 8-9 Jun 2017
* 1st EcoSta (CFE) conference, Hong Kong, 15-18 Jun 2017
* 10th annual SoFiE conference, NYU Stern, 21-23 Jun 2017
* SoFiE course on term structure modeling, NBB Brussels, 26-30 Jun 2017
* 2017 Annual meeting of the central bank research association, Ottawa, 20-21 Jul 2017
* Credit risk workshop, Basel, 14-15 Sep 2017
* ECB DG-R internal seminar, Frankfurt, 04 Mar 2016
* Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Finance seminar, Frankfurt, 30 Mar 2016
* Finance@VU seminar, VU Amsterdam, 01 Apr 2016
* [On a temporary secondment to ECB banking supervision from Apr - Jul 2016.]
* ECB DG-R internal seminar, Frankfurt, 29 Apr 2016
* ECB SSM, Frankfurt, 10 May 2016
* IAS Institute of Higher Studies, Econometrics seminar, Vienna, 09 Jun 2016
* GSE "Time series econometrics & applications" workshop, Barcelona, 20-21 Jun 2016
* International Association for Applied Econometrics conference, Milan, 22-25 Jun 2016
* EFA meeting, Oslo, 17-20 Aug 2016
* GRETA Credit conference, Venice, 06-07 Oct 2016
* Credit risk modeling workshop, Chicago Fed, 08-10 Nov 2016
* Riksbank seminar, Stockholm, 22 Nov 2016
* CFE/CMStatistics conference, Seville, 9-11 Dec 2016